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Organizations that have found it difficult to focus on managing the
future business provide a range of excuses, including:
- Corporate myopia
- Industry turbulence
- Future incompetence
Corporate Myopia
There are some companies that are so engrossed in managing today’s
business that they claim they cannot find the time or energy
to think about tomorrow. We recently asked the senior management
team of a billion-dollar corporation to speculate on the com-
pany’s future, and on which direction it might take to identify new
business opportunities. It was clear from our interviews that only
two people on the team had spent any time thinking about the
company’s future beyond their current one-year planning period.
This is probably not unusual. Especially in light of the downsizing
and the relentless pressure to make the quarterly numbers in many
organizations, the urgency of today’s business supersedes the importance
of tomorrow’s business.
Industry Turbulence
Other companies, particularly those involved with fast-changing industries
such as communications and technology, claim that attempts
to understand the future are fruitless, given the chaos and
unpredictability they see in their markets. With technologies, products,
and pricing changing so rapidly, they maintain that it is impossible
to speculate on where those markets might be in a threeto-
five-year time frame. As a result, many of these companies take
a reactive approach to the future, preferring to make decisions once
market dynamics are clearer.
Future Incompetence
Finally, we have also run into companies that know it is important
to understand the future and want to do it, but they do not know
how to go about doing it. Their typical response is to try to find
someone who ‘‘really understands the future,’’ who can advise them
on what to do about it. They want the answer delivered to them by
an enlightened outsider. The search for this person is rarely
‘‘prophet-able.’’ Futurists vary significantly in the assumptions they
make and the factors they consider. None have the answer.
As a result of this lack of attention, the future is an unknown,
mysterious place for many companies. The mystery even leads to
some myths about the future, which can actually discourage its exploration.
For example, many people see how sudden changes can
have an impact on a market. Believing that these changes could not
have been predicted, they assume that all ‘‘forecasts’’ of the future
are too tenuous to be of value. Therefore, they do not bother to
explore the possibilities of the future.
Assumptions About the Future
Strategy innovation can be a powerful means of managing your
business toward the future. However, the effective pursuit of strategy
innovation requires a few basic assumptions about the future.
1. The future does not yet exist and can be created.
There are some people who feel that the future has already
somehow been determined and will be revealed to us as it arrives.
For them, the future is like an actor, with lines carefully
rehearsed, waiting backstage for the right moment to enter the
scene. Those who feel this way tend to be very reactive in their
actions, for they fear that they cannot control the future. They
will take no action until the future arrives. Then, they will ‘‘see
what the future holds’’ and respond to it. Perhaps they feel the
future is so powerful that it will nullify their actions, so why
waste energy and resources now?
By definition, the future does not exist and never will (once
you experience tomorrow, it is no longer tomorrow, but today).
Therefore, because the future is not a fait accompli, it can be
influenced. Although maybe not a totally blank canvas, the future
has considerable latitude for the artist to make an impact.
Actions taken today by a company will result in some future
effects in the marketplace. Therefore, proactive companies that
take those actions today will have the greatest influence on the
future. Reactive companies may survive into the future, but it is
the proactive companies that will create that future. The proactive
companies can, through their actions, ‘‘change the rules’’ in
the marketplace, requiring the reactive companies to play the
game a different way or perish.
2. The future cannot be precisely predicted, but its forces can be identified.
If all trends were linear, constant, and noninteractive, it might
be possible to predict the future. However, trends change, and
so much of the future is shaped by events that cannot be predicted.
We call these events discontinuities, things that shift the
trend lines. They are inflection points that cause the future to be
diverted from its previous path. The invention of the transistor,
the evolution of the Vietnam War, and the development of the
Internet were all discontinuities that had a significant impact on
the future that we are now experiencing. The human genome
project, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and nanotechnology may have
a similar impact on our children’s future.
Although these elements cannot be predicted with any degree
of certainty, the forces that led to them would have been quite
easy to spot—by those who were searching for them. We were involved in a strategy innovation
initiative in the mid-1990s where an industry expert shared
a concern that terrorist attacks could render city water supplies
vulnerable. Back then, that seemed a very unrealistic possibility.
But those who were in positions of responsibility recognized the
potential because they were dealing with such issues every day.
It is a valuable exercise to identify existing forces that could have
an impact on the future. It is not the same as predicting the
future, but it is gaining market foresight that can help understand
and shape the future.
3. The future is not one-size-fits-all, it is proprietary.
When you see a cow standing in a field, what do you see? A
farmer may see his chores. A toddler may see something scary.
Ben & Jerry see a potential supplier. The point is that we all see
things differently, based on our experiences and what is important
to us (our values). The future is the same way. Companies
perceive the future according to their past experiences, their core
competencies, and their values and aspirations. Therefore, two
companies from the same industry may see the same forces in
the marketplace, but paint two totally different pictures of the
future. The future you see is proprietary to you, based on your
values. It cannot be delivered by a consultant, it must be discovered
by you.
With these basic assumptions about the future, you are now
in a position to explore the future for strategic opportunities
that exist there. |
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